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After missing three events attending to family matters, Alexis DeJoria returns to the NHRA circuit with 10 races left in the regular season and 208 points in the bag. She sits in 14th place, staring up at Jonnie Lindberg, Jim Campbell, Cruz Pedregon and Del Worsham. Let’s look at her odds of chasing down a spot in the Countdown to the Championship with a little historical context in mind.

First, how many points does it usually take to make the Countdown? We talk a lot about bump spots on Sunday, so let’s use a similar terminology for the Countdown. Here’s the bump spot for each of the past three years in Funny Car: 812 (2016), 905 (2015) and 883 (2014). That gives us an average bump spot of 867. 

So, DeJoria needs about 659 points in 10 races, or 66 points a race, to get into the Countdown. She also needs to pass three full-time drivers, and Lindberg, to do it. Lindberg won’t race in Epping but plans to race the rest of the regular season after that; meaning DeJoria’s return to action is critical in her race for the playoffs. 

It also means DeJoria needs to do a couple of things: either very reliably reach the second round or take home some Wallys over this 10-race stretch. Given the size of most fields, she’s likely to pick up at least 31 points a race (10 points for qualifying, a minimum of one qualifying position point, and at least 20 if she loses in the first round); but that’s unlikely to get the job done. DeJoria needs more. 

The last win for the Tequila Patron car came more than a year ago, at the Spring running of the Las Vegas race. DeJoria lost in the 2015 Englishtown final to Matt Hagan, which conveniently brings us to the next bit of historical context: how Kalitta Motorsports’ driver has performed over this stretch over the past three years. In short, it’s a mixed bag.

In 2016, DeJoria left Topeka with 451 points in eighth place and snuck out of Indianapolis with 812 points in 10th. Some context: After hitting the guardwall in Sonoma, DeJoria missed both the Seattle and Brainerd races. She earned 45.13 points a race, posted a 4-8 round record and went beyond the first round three times. History tells us she’ll need to do better than that this year.

A year prior, DeJoria exited Topeka with 395 points in ninth place and earned 510 points over 10 races before leaving Indy with 905 points in 10th. That 51 point-a-race mark is better, but may still leave her on the outside looking in this year. She posted an 8-10 record and got out of the first round in five of 10 races while advancing to one final. 

The best case for DeJoria’s chances comes back in 2014. A win at the U.S. Nationals and a 15-9 round record highlight a stretch where she picked up a whopping 649 points. A three-race stretch where she failed to get out of the first round was the only blemish on her record in the leadup to the countdown and DeJoria still managed to enter it in fourth place. 

The experienced driver’s road to the Countdown doesn’t need to end with a win at the U.S. Nationals, of course, but picking up a victory somewhere would make things a whole lot easier for her (and sweeter, too). Before DeJoria’s hiatus, her Camry was beginning to run more consistently. She has round wins in her last two races and posted a couple of elapsed times in the 3s in Houston and Las Vegas. 

She’ll have to continue to do that as the competition around her improves. Worsham earned his first round-win of the season since Pomona in Topeka while Pedregon is a threat to go on a run at any given time. Lindberg might be a rookie, but he’s been to more finals this season than the three veterans have been to this season combined. It’s worth noting this is the first time DeJoria enters the Eastern Swing outside a playoff position since 2013. She didn’t qualify for the Countdown that season and will be eager to make sure history doesn’t repeat itself this time around.